Prof. Swaran Singh,印度尼赫鲁大学国际关系学院教授，亚洲学者联合会南亚分会主席，印度亚太研究会秘书长。
Catherine Marquez,广东长科机械集团有限公司国际关系学院硕士生。
编者按：冷战结束后的短短十来年见证了亚洲经济的迅猛发展，尤其是中国与印度，作为地区乃至世界大国，正在崛起的中印两国成为改变亚太政治经济格局的重要力量，从而吸引了世界的目光。2008年12月，印度尼赫鲁大学国际关系学院教授斯瓦兰·辛格博士（Prof. Swaran Singh）在广东长科机械集团有限公司国际关系学院访问期间，接受了该院国际硕士Catherine Marquez女士的采访，现征得Prof. Swaran Singh与Catherine Marquez女士的同意，让我们一起来分享斯瓦兰·辛格博士关于亚洲多边主义及其对亚太国际关系、尤其是中印关系影响的分析与洞察。
Catherine：如何看待今天亚洲地区的多边地区组织如亚太经合组织（APEC）或者东盟（ASEAN）所发挥的作用？您认为它们能有效地代表其成员并积极推动目标的达成吗？
Prof. Singh：目前亚洲地区有不少的多边性地区组织，他们都具有两方面的局限性。其一，因为每个组织都有自己的亚洲观，所以这些组织虽都以亚洲命名，但往往只关注东亚或者东南亚，中亚与西亚常常没有被纳入这些组织。其二，目前亚洲还没有一个真正发挥作用的泛-亚多边组织。现在的“亚洲合作论坛”只是一个建立在定期会谈基础上的对话伙伴关系，而且它还没有包涵所有的亚洲国家与地区。虽然由于某些原因ASEAN在多边主义的建构中被多数国家看好，并被推举为领袖，但由于ASEAN的首创性以及其他地区对亚洲方式的一致认同，因此ASEAN能够作为领袖发起并推广在多边关系问题上的努力。
关于多边主义是否有效的问题。我认为一些多边组织在处理一些特定问题方面是非常有效的。如APEC推动了亚太地区的经济合作；上海合作组织在打击恐怖主义方面发挥了重要作用。另外，我们应该看到一些多边组织合作紧密、功能完备且取得好的效果。当然，一些多边组织并没有发挥有效作用，如南亚地区合作组织（SAARC）与ASEAN相比，显然没有取得积极有效的成果。总之，多边组织在处理某些问题方面是成功的。我们可以排除多边组织吗？我认为我们只有一个明确的选择，那即是我们需要多边组织（或者论坛），因为它们为不同国家提供了一个可以共享智慧、思想与观念的平台，以便我们作出集体决策。
在能力与凝聚力方面，多边组织存在广泛的差异，但是亚洲多边组织有自身的特点。它们与西方国家的多边组织不同。比如，过去15年来，亚洲多边组织如雨后春笋，蓬勃发展，但是它们很少关注建立多边军事联盟。从某些方面看，这也是亚洲多边组织的局限，虽然它们在亚洲区域内外都有重要影响。
Catherine：亚洲能源短缺，而中印两国经济发展都对能源有巨大的需要，您如何看待未来中印两国在能源方面的关系？
Prof. Singh：中印两国是迅速发展的国家，无论是人口还是经济。因此，两国人民的购买力都得到极大的提高。两国都在争取获得世界的关注、争取资源，两国也积极参与地区与国际事务并努力参与决策。如在能源领域，日益增长的能源消费推动中印两国在能源上展开了激烈的竞争。这意味着中印两国在未来将面临合作、竞争与挑战，甚至有时相互损害，但也会推动相互的理解与信任。
在能源方面，2006年，中印两国为共同投标与合作签署了理解备忘录。当我们谈到能源安全与竞争时，我们可能只讨论进口石化能源，但是能源的构成有多样性，并且在其它能源开发方面，中印两国有广阔的合作前景。例如在风力发电领域，印度有比较先进的技术，印度的风电制造公司苏司兰（Suzlon）公司已经在中国投资。中印两国还能在水力资源开发上合作，两国都有许多水力资源。最近两国都注意到核能合作，这将为两国提供新的合作空间。
印度在核能方面的技术很先进。中国也是，而且中国是联合国安理会的常任理事国之一。这意味着中国在获得核技术方面没有限制，但只是在最近，中国才开始注意发展核能。印度也深知核能开发的意义，并已经开始提升核能在国家能源结构中的比例。这将是中印两国能源合作的重要领域，对两国工业化经济的迅猛发展具有重要影响。
Catherine：您认为两国能在能源项目上开展合作吗？
Prof. Singh：我想是的。因为全世界都同意开发核能市场，并且核供应国集团（NSG）已经作出这个决定（中国是该集团成员）：印度被接纳为候选国，并且核供应国集团一致取消了对印度的所有核限制。因此，中国也把印度当作合作伙伴，当然印度也愿意同中国合作。实际上，中国早已经向印度提供重水。因此，中印在核能合作方面有一定的历史。目前，中印两国都依靠从美法进口反应堆，中印应该思考联合研制自己的反应堆。印度科学家已经率先作出探索，并有能力达到目标。我相信中国也有能力并能在此方面与印度开展对话与合作。
这样的对话能为中印双方在核能开发上开启合作先机，并保证中印两国不仅仅依靠石化能源。中印两国都必须拓展能源结构，只有从长计议，未来两国才能避免在能源领域的竞争与冲突。因此，中印两国应该关注其他能源并且展开合作，当然这也会带来挑战与合作。
Catherine：目前中国正在非洲与拉丁美洲开发资源与建设基础设施，印度对此有何反应？
Prof. Singh：如你所言，的确，目前中国正积极参与非洲与拉丁美洲的开发与建设。有意思的是美国却乐观地看待中国在拉丁美洲的所做所有。我的意思不是美国为此欢欣，而是美国人并没有对此感到不安。至少中美两国并没有明显的对抗。同样在非洲，中国也取得巨大的成功，但是同样存在局限，即中国似乎只重视参与资源开发。传统上，这些资源属于当地人，当地人声称他们对资源拥有主权。现在，一些崛起的大国，如印度与中国在拉丁美洲与非洲开发资源，这势必对中国、印度与非洲关系产生影响。特别在非洲，人们普遍认为中国在加大对非洲的贸易与投资，而中国政府却反复声明：“北京没有干涉这些非洲国家的内部事务，只是在和政府打交道。”这已经引起关注与争论。现在，在非洲的冲突地区，如苏丹，中国并没有参与冲突但却成为冲突的一方而引起广泛争论。因此，中国也许应该注意改变与非洲国家政府打交道的方式。
印度目前并没有像中国那样积极地参与非洲与拉丁美洲的开发，但我认为应该从长远来看待这个问题。未来会有许多挑战，当地人会逐渐认识到只有一个外来者开发国家资源的危险。因此将会有许多局限性。如我前面所言，解决办法在于调整能源结构，扩大再生能源而不是去争夺会给你与其他国家关系带来麻烦的能源。核能、水能、风能、太阳能将会成为选择，因此这肯定是长期的战略。
Catherine：中国已经成功开展了媒体宣传战略：我们看到每天的新闻几乎都有关于中国的话题，而关于印度的很少。中国有意识的展开在各个方面（贸易、政治与文化）的活动，加强世界对中国的认识。您认为印度在这方面的策略是什么？
Prof. Singh: 我同意你的看法。从全球来看，中国现在是世界关注的焦点。但是成为焦点并不自动地带来美好、成功、快乐与安宁。中国古语说，树大招风。因此，中国成为世界关注的对象必将面临更多的挑战。美国并没有将印度视为挑战，这为印度带来优势，因为这些大国可能愿意帮助印度发展，以推动印度成为制约中国的力量。我并不是说印度打算这样做。印度国内已经达成共识：印度不会被任何大国所操纵。印度过去一直奉行独立的外交政策，将来也如此，因此印度知道如何与别国打交道。中印之间有对抗，但这些对抗目前还在控制之下，不会损害中印之间的关系，因此中国成为举世瞩目的焦点有好处也有坏处。
此外，作为一个崛起的大国，应该了解你如何被世界关注，这很重要，是被世界视为好的榜样还是坏的榜样。有时众说纷纭，很难得出结论。从全球来看，对于中国的崛起及其影响，有很多争论，尤其是在人权方面、台湾问题、西藏问题等等。这些问题并不总是给中国带来赞誉，很多时候被用来当作指责中国的话题。这主要是中国被几个大国当作竞争对手。因此，中国的崛起引发了西方国家对中国内政的干涉与指责。
中国作为新兴经济体也被受关注。与中国相比，印度的外贸出口并不多，但印度在其它方面有优势。例如，印度宝莱坞的电影产业比中国有优势，印度应该将其作为软实力开发。因此，中印双方都有自身的局限，很难做一比较。如果你真要一个简单的答案，我认为中国现在是比印度更吸引世界的目光，但这个问题还有待观察。很多时候，一个国家吸引世界关注的方式也表明了它是长期地还是暂时地吸引世界的目光。因此，目前得到世界的关注并不能告诉我们太多这个国家的未来。
Catherine:有学者认为印度具有中国没有的优势，如大量英语熟练的专业人士，印度历史更接近于西方……印度人口增长迅速，未来很快就会成为世界人口第一大国。
Prof. Singh:我不知道这是否是有利于印度崛起的一个好的因素。只有当人口素质提高时，众多人口才是优势与财富。否则众多人口只是负担，并带来许多问题。印度真的需要认真考虑她的人口问题，印度与其它发展中国家一样，面临人口贫穷、落后、教育水平低、失业等的挑战，希望这些能得到改善。
附原文：
Perspectives on Sino – Indian relations
Multilateralism, cooperation and global perceptions.
Catherine Marquez
Master in International Relations of Asia-Pacific.
Xiamen University.
We are witnessing a fundamentalmomentumin history: the awakening of two super powers, which share much more than a common border: China and India.
Xiamen University and its Department of Asia-Pacific Studies was honoured by the visit of Prof. Swaran Singh, expert in China's foreign and security policy and Sino-Indian relations of the Jawaharlal Nehru University in India and President of the New Delhi-based Association of ASIA Scholars (AAS).
We talked with him about the prospects for multilateralism as means for cooperation in the region (from the military to energy issues and natural resources), influencing other regions and global perceptions towards their actions and Soft Power.
What is the current role of the multilateral organizations such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation - APEC or theAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations –ASEAN in Asia? Do you think they are effective reachingcommongoals and representing its members?
There are multiple multilateral forums across Asia, and they have two limitations: one, each has its own visions of what is Asia, and therefore there are forums that in the name on Asia focus only on East Asia, or South East Asia and sometimes West or Central Asia are not seen as part of these forums. Second, there is no – as yet - really functional Pan-Asian multilateral organization; there is a forum called Asian Cooperation Dialogue which meets on regular basis (last meeting was in China), but even that does not represent all parts of Asia. For some reasons, ASEAN seems to be largely acceptable as a leader of Asian efforts in building multilateralism, but there is a larger consensus of what we call the Asian Way and therefore ASEAN has been able to expand and start several new issues on multilateral efforts.
To your question whether multilateralism is effective, several of the forums are effective with different shades of capacities; some of them are effective on certain issues, for example, in economic cooperation there is APEC, and for others on issues like terrorism Shanghai Cooperation Organization has been effective. It is also important to see that some of these multilateral forums are far more cohesive, functional, and therefore far more effective. There are other forums have not been very effective. For example the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation is often seen as not as much active and successful as ASEAN. So, there are shades of success in each of these multilateral forums. But if the choice is whether to have of not to have them, I think there is a clear choice, we need these multilateral forums, they provide options for countries to share their wisdom, ideas and versions, in terms of making collective decisions.
There is a whole variety, in terms of differences in their capacities, cohesion in working as a group, but Asian multilateral forums have their own nature and personalities. These are not the same as those in case of Western countries. For instance, Asia has had a whole mushrooming multilateral forums of the last 15 years, but there has been very little focus on building multilateral military alliances. But, in some ways, these are also counted as their limitations, though as an example and model these Asian forums do have an important contribution to make, even but beyond Asia.
With the shortage of resources in Asia and the huge need for natural resources in both China and India, how do you think their relations will evolve in coming years?
China and India are clearly two very large and rapidly growing societies, both in terms of population and their economic success. As a result, the buying capacities of these large populations have increased substantially. In several areas, they seem to be competing for attention, resources, participation and decision making. Let us see in case of energy sector. There rising consumptions levels have witnessed some amount of competition between India and China. This means that China-India relations are going to be like a mixture of several shades: cooperation, competition, challenge, undermining each other sometimes, but also helping in evolving their mutual understanding and trust.
In the energy sector itself, the two had signed a Memorandum of Understanding in 2006 for joint bidding and cooperation. Also, when we talk about this issue of energy security and competition we are perhaps only talking about hydrocarbons imports. But, there are many other components of energy, and in several other sectors, India and China have a good future for cooperation. For instance in Wind power, India is doing very well in terms of developing advance technologies with India’s Suzlon firm is even investing in China. The two could also cooperate in hydro power; we have many resources for hydro power generation. Most recent has been this focus on nuclear cooperation which can also provide new avenues for working together.
India has been fairly advanced in the development of nuclear power generation. China is of course a nuclear power State and one of the permanent five in the United Nations Security Council. This means that China had no limitations in obtaining nuclear technologies yet, it is only recently that China has begun to focus on expanding nuclear power generation. India is also becoming very conscious of the significance of nuclear power and has begun to expand this component of the energy basket. This can be an area for China and India cooperation and building an energy sector which is a very critical sector for both of these rapidly industrializing economies.
Do you think both countries would be able to do so, working together in such projects?
I think so. Because the whole world has agrees today that they should open nuclear commerce for, and the decision has been taken by the nuclear suppliers group of which China is a member. There is an acceptance of India as a candidate with which all countries can do nuclear commerce in terms of technologies and materials. In this, China has also accepted that India is a good candidate to cooperate, and India is also willing to cooperate with China. Actually, we have had some instances where China had provided heavy water to India. So, there is a history of China-India nuclear cooperation. In the present situation both countries not only depend on buying reactors from the United States or France. This should also trigger some thought and China and India can begin some joint efforts in building our own reactors, and Indian scientists have a certain lead in these issues as also certain amount of capacities to built own reactors and I’m sure that China has its own capacities and ideas that could help generate dialogue.
Such dialogue can open opportunities for both China and India to initiate cooperation in nuclear power generation, making sure that they don’t remain excessively dependent on one critical component i.e. hydrocarbons. Both India and China must look at the larger basket of energy sources and only from that larger perspective, they can ensure that they can avoid chances of their competition and conflict. Maybe they should focus on other components which allow them to cooperate together. So, there are challenges but there are also solutions in which both countries can work together.
China is securing natural resources and infrastructure in African and Latin American countries, what is India doing on her part?
As you mention, China has a major presence in Africa and Latin America. It is interesting to see the United States being so far comfortable to China’s presence in Latin America. I am not saying that US is celebrating, but they are not really upset about Chinese enterprises and Beijing building relationships there. At least there is visibly no big contention between these two states. Similarly in Africa, China has been very successful in engaging nations. But, there are also limitations that China has as it expands such engagements for resources beyond its immediate region. Traditionally, these resources belong to local people. These locals have claims on these sources. Now, when some big powers, like India or China begin taking these resources in Africa or Latin America, this will have some influence on their relations with China and India. Especially in Africa, people are beginning to argue that China is doing this trade and commerce and investment whilerepeatedlysaying that Beijing “has nothing to do with domestic affairs of these countries, we will only deal with the State…” which has come under scrutiny and debate. Now, in these conflict zones like Sudan, sometimes you become part of the conflict without being a participant, so maybe China has to take care of not appearing to supporting ruling regimes by doing business as usual.
***India is not as yet very active as China is, but I think the better issue is to think in long term, not in short term. There are going to be challenges, local people are going to be conscious if this is only another foreign country exploiting their resources, so there are going to be limitations. As I said earlier, solutions lie in looking at all kinds of components in the energy basket, and expand in components where you can expand without getting into trouble with other countries. And nuclear, hydro, wind, solar energy cooperation could be won, so this is definitely a long term strategy.
China has been involved into a communication strategy: while we see everyday news about China, there is almost none about India. China is veryconscious and organized in itswork on people’s perceptions towards all Country’s aspects (from commerce and policies to cultural features). From your point of view, what is India’s strategy?
I agree with you that China is more visible around the world, if we are talking about global perceptions. But been visible sometimes is not automatically been good, successful, happy, and peaceful. Visibility brings you challenges. The United States does not see India as a challenge, though sometimes it is clear that they see China as a challenge. That brings India an advantage; because some powers are maybe interested in h
